A sudden shift from import tariffs to free trade can have significant economic consequences, including the potential for short-term unemployment in various sectors of the economy. Let’s examine each of the options provided to understand why the correct answer is (a) Import-competing industries and why the other options are not correct.

Import-Competing Industries (Correct Answer – Option a):

Import-competing industries are those that produce goods or services that face competition from foreign imports. When tariffs are removed and trade barriers are reduced, these industries can face increased competition from cheaper foreign imports. As a result, they may struggle to compete and may experience short-term unemployment. There are several reasons for this:

1. Price Competition:

Imported goods often come from countries with lower production costs, which can lead to lower prices. In response to the increased competition, domestic companies may be forced to reduce their prices, which can lead to lower revenues and profitability. This can result in downsizing and layoffs as companies try to cut costs.

2. Reduction in Demand:

As consumers and businesses have access to cheaper imported products, they may shift their purchasing patterns away from domestically produced goods. This can result in a reduced demand for products from import-competing industries, which may lead to short-term unemployment as production slows down.

3. Structural Adjustment:

Industries that were previously protected by tariffs may not be prepared to compete in a free trade environment. Workers in these industries may not have the necessary skills or training to transition to other sectors, leading to unemployment in the short term.

4. Supply Chain Disruptions:

The sudden shift from protectionist policies to free trade can disrupt established supply chains in import-competing industries. This disruption can lead to production inefficiencies and temporary unemployment as these industries adapt to the new trade environment.

In summary, import-competing industries can face short-term unemployment as they adjust to increased competition from foreign imports in a free trade environment. This adjustment process may include downsizing, reduced demand, structural challenges, and supply chain disruptions.

Industries that are Only Exporters (Option b):

Industries that are exclusively exporters might actually benefit from a shift to free trade rather than experiencing short-term unemployment. Free trade can open up new markets and opportunities for exporters.

When trade barriers are reduced, these industries can expand their export volumes, increase revenues, and potentially create more jobs. While they might face increased competition from foreign producers in global markets, the overall effect is likely to be positive in terms of employment.

Industries that Sell Domestically as well as Export (Option c):

Industries that both sell domestically and export may experience mixed effects from a shift to free trade. On one hand, they can benefit from increased access to international markets and potentially see growth in their export-oriented activities.

On the other hand, they might face increased competition in their domestic market from cheaper imports, which could lead to short-term unemployment in their domestic sales segment.

However, the overall impact would depend on factors like the industry’s competitiveness and its ability to adapt to changing market conditions. The short-term unemployment in this scenario is possible but not as straightforward as in import-competing industries.

Industries that Neither Import nor Export (Option d):

Industries that neither import nor export are less likely to be directly affected by a shift from import tariffs to free trade. These industries are primarily oriented towards the domestic market and are relatively insulated from international trade fluctuations.

The removal of import tariffs might have limited direct consequences for their employment levels, as they are not directly involved in cross-border trade. Their employment stability would primarily depend on domestic economic conditions and consumer demand.

In conclusion, the correct answer is (a) Import-competing industries because they are the most directly impacted by a sudden shift to free trade. The removal of import tariffs exposes them to increased foreign competition, which can result in short-term unemployment as they struggle to adjust.

On the other hand, the impact on other types of industries varies. Industries that only export (Option b) can benefit from increased opportunities in global markets, while industries that both sell domestically and export (Option c) may face mixed effects.

Industries that neither import nor export (Option d) are relatively insulated from the direct effects of the shift to free trade and are more influenced by domestic factors.

It’s important to note that while short-term unemployment may occur in some industries during the transition to free trade, the long-term effects can be more positive, as economies tend to benefit from increased efficiency, specialization, and access to larger markets in a free trade environment.

Additionally, government policies and labor market flexibility can play a significant role in mitigating the short-term unemployment impacts and helping affected workers transition to other sectors.