Management Notes

Reference Notes for Management

Data Analysis and Modeling – Syllabus | Fourth(4th) Semester

syllabusCourse Syllabus
Data Analysis and Modeling
Fourth Semester | Second Year
Pokhara University (PU)
Management Notes

Course Title:Data Analysis and Modeling
Course no: SIT 201
Credit hours: 3
Full Marks: 100 | Pass Marks: 45

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Course Objectives
This course aims to acquaint students with major statistical and quantitative tools used in modeling and analysis of business decision involving alternative choices.

Course Description
The component of the course includes regression analysis and models, time series analysis, and forecasting, linear programming models and applications, transportation and assignment models, network models, and simulation models with emphasis on business application.

Course Outcomes
By the end of this course students would be able to
• calculate and interpret the meaning of correlation coefficient to measure the strength of relationship between two numerical variables,
• calculate and interpret the meaning coefficient of determination to measure the predictive power of the simple as well as multiple regression,
• forecast the future values using various models, and
• optimize the resources in the business decision making process.

Course Contents
Unit I Simple Correlation and Regression Models:
Measuring and Predicting Relationships                 8 hours
Correlation: Meaning, Scatterplot, Karl Pearson correlation coefficient, Test of correlation coefficient.
Simple Linear Regression: Predicting of One Variable from Another
Statistical model, Least square regression- assumptions, Standard error of estimate, Coefficient of determination, Residual Analysis, Testing of regression coefficient.

Unit II Multiple Regression Models:
Predicting One Factor from Several Others                 8 hours
Multiple regression model, Standard error of estimate, Coefficient of determination, Significance of regression model, Test of significance of regression coefficients (Which variables are significant and explaining the most?), Model building, Curvilinear models, Qualitative variables, Stepwise regression, Residual analysis, Multi-colinearity.

Unit III Index Number and its Construction Models            5 hours
Introduction, Definition of index number, Uses of index number, Types of index number, Methods of constructing index number ,Base shifting, Deflation, Cost of living index.

Unit IV Time Series and Forecasting Models              10 hours
Index number, Understanding time series analysis, Decomposition of time series, Cyclic variation, Seasonal variation, Deseasonalizing the time series data (Ratio to moving average method), Choosing the appropriate forecasting technique, Moving average, Exponential smoothing, Regression based linear and curvilinear trend models, Measures of forecast accuracy (MAD,MAPE, and MSE).

Unit V Introduction to Optimization Models              12 hours
Review of Linear Programming Model: Problem formulation, Graphical solution, special cases, Duality in LP
Transportation Model: Vogel’s Approximation Method only
Assignment Model: Hungarian Method only

Unit VI: Network Models                  5 hours
Introduction, Critical Path Method (CPM), Project Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT), Network diagram, Probability in PERT analysis

Basic Books

Davis, G., & Pecar, B. Business Statistics using Excel. New Delhi: Oxford University Press
Berenson, M. L. & David M. L. Basic Business Statistics: Concepts and Applications. Upper Saddle River, New Jersey: Pearson Prentice Hall of USA.
Eppen, G. D., Gould, F. J. & Schmidt, C.P. Introductory Management Science. New Delhi: Prentice Hall

Levin, R. I., & David S. R. Statistics for Management. New Delhi: Prentice Hall of India.
Panneerselvam, R. Research Methodology. New Delhi: PHI Learning Private Limited.
Allbright, S. C., Winston, W., & Zappe, C. J. Data Analysis and Decision Making with Microsoft Excel. Pacific Grove: Duxubury Press.
Argyrous, G. Statistics for Research with a Guide to SPSS . New Delhi: Sage South India Edition
Whigham, D. Business Data Analysis using Excel. New Delhi: Oxford University Press

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